Shocking polls before Election PDF Print E-mail
Written by Hemant   
Friday, 10 October 2008

National on 40.5%, Labour on 37.5% National has shed seven percentage points in a shock poll which shows a dramatic catch-up by Labour.

The latest New Zealand Morgan Poll released today puts National's support at 40.5 per cent with Labour climbing 1 point to 37.5 per cent – a gap of just three points compared with 11 points a fortnight ago.

Prime Minister Helen Clark said it showed voters were thinking seriously about whether it was worth risking a National-led government.

"I always believed that when the election arrived the stark choices for voters would become clear," she told reporters.

Miss Clark said voters knew Labour had run a strong economy for most of the past nine years and trusted it to deal with the financial crisis.

She said she would outline some of Labour's plans to deal with the crisis, along with some other policies, when Labour launches its election campaign in Auckland on Sunday.

The Morgan poll is the closest the two parties have rated in over a year but the poll, taken in the two weeks up to October 5, is at odds with other recent surveys.

Other polls would need to confirm the result, before there could be seen to be a trend of the National-Labour gap closing.

TV One's Colmar-Brunton poll of 1010 voters conducted between September 27 and October 2 and released on Sunday put National on 52 per cent support – down 1 point on its last poll – 19 points ahead of Labour.

A TV3 poll a week earlier put National 16 points ahead.

Previous Morgan polls have bounced around. A poll just over a month ago put National ahead by just 6.5 points, but the most recent, just over a fortnight ago, put the gap at 11 points.

Today's poll puts the Greens on 9 per cent support, up 2.5 per cent, New Zealand First down one on 4 per cent, ACT up 2 to 3.5 per cent, the Maori Party and United Future up 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent and 1 per cent respectively.

It puts support for the Progressives, which did not rate in its last survey a fortnight ago, at 1 per cent.

If the poll was reflected on election day Labour with 48 seats and a variety of possible support partners would have the best shot at forming a government.

It could do so with the support of the Greens' 11 seats and the Maori Party's six seats – based on the assumption it wins the electorate seats polling has it leading – in what would be a 123-seat Parliament.

Alternatively it could form a government with the support of the Progressives and United Future.

National with 52 seats would need the support of at least ACT and the Maori Party to form a government.

The poll was taken as global markets plummeted, but before the Government opened its books or National released its tax cuts package.

The poll is of 923 people.

Last Updated ( Sunday, 08 January 2012 )
 
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